How will the world look like in 2050? What dynamics will govern in different parts of the world? Seen it from Europe, the forecast confirm trends rather daunting and in place for already a decade. So: more Asia, in world GDP shares, and more and more countries with demographics, domestic demand and strength vehement work.
The research, conducted for the first time in 2006, indicates that by 2042 the world economy would double in size, with average real growth rate of about 2.5% between now and 2050. However, this increase will have very diverse contributions: the average growth rate of the seven major emerging economies (identified in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey), will be around 3.5% per annum, more than the double of the 1.6% of the nations of the G7 – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States – those that historically have held the sceptre, economically and military. But today is no longer so, and tomorrow it will be even less.
“We will continue to watch the global economy shifting, moving away from advanced economies consolidated in favour of the emerging Asia” – said John Hawksworth of PwC, co-author of the report -. By 2050 the E7 could represent nearly 50% of world GDP, while the share of the G7 will drop to just over 20%: “By mid-century it is expected that six of the seven largest economies in the world will be represented today by countries classified as emerging. Based on GDP, China has already surpassed the US as world’s largest economy, but by 2050 India could also reach them”.
As for other countries, those seen rushing the most are Vietnam, India and Bangladesh, Indonesia and Mexico. They will all exceed mature economies such as Japan, Germany, UK and France. Turkey will be very close to Italy that will loose places and go from the 12th to the 21st in the world ranking.
Looking at Africa, Nigeria could gain eight places, going to occupy the 14th position by 2050, although it will first have to diversify oil revenues and consolidate institutions and infrastructures.
Even the potential of Poland and Colombia are well seen: for PwC, are the large economies that will benefit from faster growth in the respective regions, Latin America and the EU: “The development in many emerging economies will be supported by a relatively rapid growth of the population, by high domestic demand and size of workforce – adds Hawksworth, detailing trends already well known – although this development will be integrated with investments in education and better macro fundamentals, to ensure employment for the growing number of young residents.”